The programme commenced with the welcome address given by Dr Ashok Kumar, Acting president, ICWA. Dr Kumar welcomed Prof. Zhang Guihong, University of Fudan China. Prof Zhang Guihong was in Delhi this evening. In his address in Indian Council of World Affairs, he articulated, China's perspective on its Pigeon strategy and recently published modernization report. He argued that China is contemplating a new trilateral regime in the form of strategic triangles at both governmental and non-governmental level. Within the framework of these multiple triangles, China is working towards carving out the triangles of relation between China-USA-India, China-Japan-USA, and China-USA-Russia, to engage with all players in constructive relationships. China and India have been the traditional strategic rivals and in 21st century they are increasingly competing in global business and economic sectors. India and China requires a new thinking to reinvigorate their relations to move further rapidly on all issues of mutual interest in a changing scenario. The prolonged border dispute has always been at the heart of their interactions. But today China is seriously thinking of forging a strong bilateral partnership with India.

He justified the creation of the China-India-US triangle in the critical neo-realist framework, within which, one can assume that competition amongst these countries will be a benign one. The formation of this triangle will repudiate the popular thesis that growing India-US strategic relations are, directed to act as a counterbalance against the China. And it will also dispel the growing apprehensions within the strategic circles about China's peaceful rise. US is a leading proponent of TMD (Theatre Missile Defense) deployments in East Asia. U.S. policymakers view TMD as a means to protect U.S. allies and friends in Asia from the growing threat of regional missile proliferation. U.S. plans focus on TMD cooperation with Japan and Taiwan. The United States is currently conducting joint research with Japan on technologies used in advanced TMD systems. The United States has also discussed the possibility of selling Taiwan TMD systems with limited capabilities. South Korea, a major U.S. ally in Asia, is not interested in TMD systems. China fears that TMD deployments would trigger a regional arms race, allows the United States to dominate East Asia, and generally foster regional instability.

The aggressiveness on part of US will culminate in destabilizing the strategic balance that will make the region more volatile. China will be compelled to expand its smaller ICBM arsenal; which will trigger the potential chain reaction, as India will also react to these developments taking into consideration its strategic inferiority with China. India is expressing its growing concerns about the increasing Chinese and US presence in Indian Ocean region. The tension is mounting in Indian strategic circles about the increased militarization of Indian Ocean. This is impacting significantly on Indian strategic thinking. Thus keeping in mind all the possible future scenarios of getting security environment worsening, necessitates, China, India and US to form a triangular relationship that will reduce the malign competition and replace it with benign fruitful interaction to strengthen the economic cooperation.

Dr. E. Sridharan: Dr Sridharan, began by arguing that, any possibility of such triangle is still an open question. It is still unclear whether it is in US interest to openly confront with China. India, China, US Strategic triangle will also create an unease for other major players in world like Russia. One cannot factor out Russia in any such a strategic formation of major powers. Russia out of its vast energy resources is emerging as a crucial player in world politics. Russia is increasingly concerned about the NATO's eastward expansion in Ukraine and Georgia. Russia has reacted strongly to the deployment of strategic missile forces in Czech Republic by USA. Russia is one of the leading exporters of military hardware in world. India and China are the traditional buyers of the Russian military hardware. The skirting of Russia from any such triangle will be counterproductive for India and China.

He argued that, the framework of strategic triangle is itself a problematic one, as the premise on the basis of which it is to be formed is weaker and incoherent. He expressed his reservations about any such a triangle and suggested a quadrilateral framework would be better suited, which will encompass Russia. This quadrilateral framework relationship should further build an agenda to interact with other major groups like EU and ASEAN.

Dr Swaran Singh:

Dr Swaran Singh began by stating that, in contemporary discourse on international relations idea triangular relationship has become very fashionable and even promises to be effective. Nevertheless, large part it also remains mere political rhetoric to be iterated in summit level meetings. In the end though this does serve a certain purpose by providing a fresh perspective at old and new emerging opportunities as also in providing new platforms to discuss all major contentious issues. No doubt discussions on US-China-India trilateral does seem to miss on ASEAN, EU and Russia who remain the major players in world politics, this trilateral perspective has its own salience and definitely a relevant one.

Talking of this US-China-India triangle, firstly, the US remain far ahead today compared to both China and India and both these Asian giants stand to gain together by engaging with US within this trilateral framework. Though this trilateral format does have its limitations yet to highlight its efficacy it is useful to begin by focusing on the positive connections amongst these three powers and not their limitations. The three have many common agendas as also common motives that they share together, where there is also still need to explored this further so as to strengthen their relationships. He mentioned that three important issues immediately come to the fore.

The first one is that all three of these are today thriving free-market economies. This can facilitate a possible adoption of unison approach for constructive economic dialogue that can change the global scenario with trade and economics topping the foreign policy replacing the traditional politico-military issues of confrontation among these states. The rapidly changing dynamics of global economy and increased consumerism which is potentially exploiting the planet earth has made it imperative for these states to focus on the issues of "Sustainable Development" as all the three economies are world's largest consumers of vital, fast depleting scarce resources. Especially, for achieving the rapid economic growth and progress India and China requires a modern and efficient technologies to gain maximum output from the minimum resources. Thus there is greater scope for technology and knowledge transfer in order to achieve an environment friendly growth. There is also an enormous scope for joint technology innovations. Likewise one can explore the threads of connection that can be woven into the network of cooperation, to construct a need driven bridge, which will give an impetus to this relationship.

Second, increasingly important factor in their trilateral relations is the one that can't be excluded from future discussions. This is the huge Indian and Chinese Diaspora working and studying in US. Presently somewhat 170 thousand Chinese and Indian students are the consumers of knowledge in US universities. They are also catering to the growing scarcity of employable talent pool in US.

Besides these three core factors of potential linkages, these countries share a common understanding on nuclear non-proliferation. There is also a common understanding and varying degree of determination on making the nuclear technology inaccessible to the rogue regime and Terrorist groups. Themonuclear technology development for energy purposes, issues of nuclear safety and simulations are some of the major potential issues that can be incorporated into the agenda of new relationship.

He finally argued that I do foresee some malign competition and benign interaction going on simultaneously, criss-crossing each other. Today cooperative competition, growing simultaneously, to ensure the edge over each other is essentially leading to deterioration of security health for these countries. Thus the trilateral partnership will be a reincarnation of Etente that will help each of these states to understand the priorities of the other to address the major challenge of terrorism. This relationship will build the strong foundations of cooperation among these countries. There will be a feeling of discomfort, or discomfort but not the competition.

During the question answer session Maj.Gen Dipankar Banrjee, sought an opinion on issue of Indio-China border dispute. He argued that, if India-US-China trilateral relationship has to move forward in potential in swing demands certain important measures to be taken on bilateral level between India and China on an immediate priority. This involves the necessary political will for this initiative to move forward beyond the rhetoric in summit level meetings. There has always been a strong strategic suspicion about the Chinese motives, makes imperative for China to fill up the trust void to ensure greater cooperation with India in all future endeavours. Also there is a complete absence of security framework to deal with all politico-military issues of confrontation. In response to that Dr Zhang, stated, the two neighbours today need a new thinking in their relationship. A Border issue is complex set of problems, which the special representatives from both the countries are discussing to resolve it. This is a matter to be left with the bureaucracy to negotiate, and we scholars have to contribute in terms of our intellectual input so make this relationship vibrant and constructive. Dr Zhang was also asked about the issues of weaponization of space, and China's Anti Satellite Test, and recession in US economy and impact on Chinese economy. He replied that, China has a trade benefits from the US. China has made a remarkable progress in economic and social sector. China encourages the investment in all other developing countries. China today holds largest equity shares in US economy. Both china and US have the joint advantage and disadvantage in economic cooperation. If US lose certainly china stands to lose. In space sector there is a greater scope for cooperation with all other space giants, and China is looking forward for that.

Besides this the idea of free tourism and free education between India and China was also discussed during this session. There is a far greater interaction at the societal level between India-US, and India-China. But there is a rare people to people interaction takes places between India and china. Prof Zhang, argued that India is still a mysterious land for China. He stated that people to people contact is important issue. China has many lessons to learn from India in order to address the major internal issues of social justice and political reforms.

At the end of the seminar Dr Reena Marwah, thanked Prof. Zhang for his thoughtful presentation. She also thanked all the audience for their participation. The programme concluded with a reception organized by Indian Council of World Affairs.